RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PHENOLOGY, RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE IN BAKIN TULU AND KWARI KWASA FOREST RESERVES, KEBBI STATE, NIGERIA

This study evaluated the relationship between phenological events and climatic variability in
selected forest tree species within Kebbi State, Nigeria, from 2021 to 2023. Monthly
observations of key phenophases—leaf shedding, bud burst, leaf flush, flowering, and fruiting—
were conducted in two forest reserves and complemented with indigenous knowledge obtained
from 120 respondents. Climate data, including monthly rainfall and temperature, were sourced
from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Results indicated that monthly rainfall
ranged from 6.4 mm to 330.8 mm, with peak rainfall occurring between August and September,
while the dry season extended from November to March. Mean monthly temperature varied
between 25°C and 33°C, with the highest temperatures recorded from February to March.
Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation analysis revealed that temperature exerted a stronger
influence on bud burst and early leaf flush, whereas rainfall significantly influenced fruiting and
certain leaf flush events. Leaf shedding was strongly associated with the dry season, reflecting
adaptive responses to moisture stress. Inter-annual variations in rainfall and temperature
significantly affected the timing and intensity of phenological events. The findings underscore
the sensitivity of forest tree phenology to climatic fluctuations and highlight the implications of
climate variability for forest ecosystem dynamics in the Sudano-Sahelian region.